The key difference between NHL futures and series prices comes down to time and flexibility. A futures bet requires a long-term time commitment and doesn’t allow for any maneuvering. If you bet on the Cup winner in mid-December, you’ll be waiting half a year to see if you win.
The advantage of hockey futures is that they offer more potential value than series pricing. Around 8–10 teams enter the season with a realistic chance to win the championship. But even some of these squads have over +1000 or +2000 Stanley Cup odds.
Here are some pointers to remember when betting on NHL futures:
- Prices are typically soft on preseason futures because they’re based on public perception.
- Bettors flock to last season’s conference and Cup finalists, leaving young cores on the verge of breakouts underpriced.
- Teams with strong underlying metrics (e.g. high expected goals) that exited the playoffs early last year can also offer value.
Series wagers are appealing because they give you more control over the outcome. You decide the best time to bet before or during the series, as you make observations on goaltending, injuries, matchups, and momentum.
You can also count on series prices for less volatility, something that’s difficult to find during hockey playoffs betting. You’ve only got to pick one of two teams to win. And while Finals series predictions are still tough due to players being battered and exhausted, they’re at least easier than choosing one winner among dozens.
Strategies for Stanley Cup series bets worth considering include:
- Breaking down key elements and stats, like a squad’s goaltending, depth, special teams (penalty kills vs power play), and 5×5 metrics (e.g. shot share, Corsi For %).
- Hedge with other bets during the series. For example, let’s say you make a series bet on the Dallas Stars over the Minnesota Wild. Dallas goes up 2–0, so you take Minnesota’s moneyline in Game 3.
- Fade strong narratives, like will this superstar finally win the Cup, or the Penguins are a team of destiny. The public tends to overvalue narratives, which leads to bad pricing.